Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 26 2021 | 10987 | 48092 | 351 | 104 | 116 | 161 |
| February 27 2021 | 11002 | 48106 | 351 | 104 | 118 | 165 |
| February 28 2021 | 11009 | 48185 | 352 | 104 | 114 | 153 |
| March 01 2021 | 11009 | 48206 | 352 | 104 | 103 | 142 |
| March 02 2021 | 11018 | 48322 | 354 | 104 | 95 | 147 |
| March 03 2021 | 11033 | 48406 | 355 | 105 | 106 | 149 |
| March 04 2021 | 11058 | 48511 | 356 | 105 | 120 | 163 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.0 | 7.5% | 9 | 0.08% | 10 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 2.3 | 19.2% | 23 | 0.17% | 30 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 2.3 | 20% | 24 | 0.11% | 39 | 0.19% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 1.4 | 10% | 12 | 0.09% | 15 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 1.0 | 10% | 12 | 0.11% | 18 | 0.17% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 1.9 | 15% | 18 | 0.14% | 21 | 0.17% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 0.9 | 7.5% | 9 | 0.08% | 13 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.9 | 10.8% | 13 | 0.12% | 17 | 0.16% |
| All ages | 25 | 11.6 | 100% | 120 | 0.11% | 163 | 0.16% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 26 2021 | 7029 | 28299 | 219 | 92 | 53 | 67 |
| February 27 2021 | 7039 | 28347 | 220 | 92 | 55 | 70 |
| February 28 2021 | 7043 | 28379 | 222 | 92 | 54 | 73 |
| March 01 2021 | 7044 | 28406 | 222 | 92 | 51 | 74 |
| March 02 2021 | 7052 | 28475 | 222 | 92 | 52 | 76 |
| March 03 2021 | 7057 | 28527 | 222 | 93 | 48 | 73 |
| March 04 2021 | 7065 | 28569 | 222 | 93 | 56 | 76 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.01% | -1 | -0.01% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.6 | 16.1% | 9 | 0.11% | 13 | 0.15% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.1 | 7.1% | 4 | 0.06% | 5 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.6% | -2 | -0.02% | -2 | -0.02% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.4 | 3.6% | 2 | 0.03% | 6 | 0.08% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.3 | 26.8% | 15 | 0.15% | 22 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.4 | 30.4% | 17 | 0.2% | 20 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.4 | 17.9% | 10 | 0.14% | 13 | 0.18% |
| All ages | 8 | 6.3 | 100% | 56 | 0.09% | 76 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 26 2021 | 5336 | 18677 | 235 | 76 | 80 | 111 |
| February 27 2021 | 5353 | 18703 | 235 | 76 | 86 | 117 |
| February 28 2021 | 5362 | 18735 | 235 | 76 | 92 | 117 |
| March 01 2021 | 5367 | 18751 | 236 | 76 | 85 | 113 |
| March 02 2021 | 5369 | 18761 | 237 | 76 | 74 | 113 |
| March 03 2021 | 5393 | 18790 | 238 | 76 | 94 | 126 |
| March 04 2021 | 5401 | 18834 | 238 | 76 | 96 | 131 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | -1 | 0.6 | 6.2% | 6 | 0.11% | 7 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.9 | 10.4% | 10 | 0.18% | 13 | 0.24% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.4 | 13.5% | 13 | 0.29% | 22 | 0.49% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.9 | 15.6% | 15 | 0.28% | 20 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.4 | 13.5% | 13 | 0.26% | 17 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.3 | 22.9% | 22 | 0.32% | 29 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 1.7 | 13.5% | 13 | 0.21% | 15 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2% | 4 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 8 | 10.6 | 100% | 96 | 0.21% | 131 | 0.29% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 26 2021 | 12192 | 52706 | 358 | 78 | 133 | 184 |
| February 27 2021 | 12211 | 52800 | 360 | 78 | 125 | 199 |
| February 28 2021 | 12230 | 52899 | 363 | 78 | 137 | 203 |
| March 01 2021 | 12232 | 52957 | 363 | 78 | 117 | 198 |
| March 02 2021 | 12246 | 53035 | 365 | 80 | 122 | 187 |
| March 03 2021 | 12268 | 53183 | 369 | 80 | 141 | 182 |
| March 04 2021 | 12277 | 53248 | 370 | 80 | 144 | 184 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.4 | 9.7% | 14 | 0.12% | 16 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 2.3 | 14.6% | 21 | 0.13% | 29 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.7 | 18.8% | 27 | 0.13% | 36 | 0.17% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.6 | 8.3% | 12 | 0.09% | 22 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.1 | 14.6% | 21 | 0.15% | 23 | 0.17% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.0 | 13.9% | 20 | 0.14% | 23 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.9 | 10.4% | 15 | 0.11% | 17 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.3 | 9.7% | 14 | 0.11% | 18 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 9 | 15.3 | 100% | 144 | 0.12% | 184 | 0.16% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 26 2021 | 40265 | 321066 | 1226 | 273 | 919 | 1141 |
| February 27 2021 | 40428 | 321518 | 1231 | 273 | 988 | 1216 |
| February 28 2021 | 40517 | 321795 | 1236 | 273 | 933 | 1247 |
| March 01 2021 | 40571 | 322133 | 1241 | 273 | 827 | 1254 |
| March 02 2021 | 40577 | 322084 | 1241 | 273 | 716 | 1231 |
| March 03 2021 | 40641 | 322293 | 1244 | 273 | 695 | 1201 |
| March 04 2021 | 40763 | 322804 | 1246 | 278 | 762 | 1179 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 2.7 | 3.9% | 30 | 0.05% | 53 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 25 | 22.1 | 27.2% | 207 | 0.29% | 328 | 0.46% |
| 20-29 | 40 | 29.6 | 36% | 274 | 0.26% | 413 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 20 | 8.9 | 10.5% | 80 | 0.1% | 124 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 6.6 | 8.7% | 66 | 0.1% | 91 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 7.1 | 8.5% | 65 | 0.1% | 90 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 3.4 | 3.8% | 29 | 0.05% | 43 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.3 | 1.4% | 11 | 0.02% | 37 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 122 | 81.7 | 100% | 762 | 0.14% | 1179 | 0.22% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 26 2021 | 562807 | 2620297 | 26013 | 6399 | 6475 | 8759 |
| February 27 2021 | 563496 | 2623498 | 26088 | 6412 | 6507 | 8696 |
| February 28 2021 | 563960 | 2626796 | 26127 | 6412 | 6238 | 8657 |
| March 01 2021 | 564268 | 2629622 | 26158 | 6412 | 5772 | 8560 |
| March 02 2021 | 564592 | 2631712 | 26222 | 6440 | 5420 | 8260 |
| March 03 2021 | 565131 | 2634999 | 26279 | 6458 | 5556 | 8142 |
| March 04 2021 | 565808 | 2639148 | 26330 | 6470 | 5810 | 8086 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 35 | 34.6 | 7% | 405 | 0.06% | 538 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 102 | 86.6 | 15.9% | 922 | 0.12% | 1344 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 132 | 88.4 | 16.7% | 973 | 0.13% | 1381 | 0.18% |
| 30-39 | 88 | 72.6 | 13.4% | 780 | 0.1% | 1116 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 117 | 70.9 | 14.1% | 817 | 0.12% | 1100 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 102 | 83.6 | 15.6% | 909 | 0.11% | 1232 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 67 | 54.1 | 10.7% | 620 | 0.08% | 832 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 34 | 31.7 | 6.6% | 384 | 0.06% | 543 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 677 | 522.4 | 100% | 5810 | 0.1% | 8086 | 0.14% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.6 | 22.1 | 18.6 | 11.6 | 10.1 | 12.8% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.8 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 11.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 30% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.6 | 17.5 | 16.9 | 15.3 | 14.3 | 12.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.6 | 46.2 | 39.8 | 81.7 | 96.6 | 22.4% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.9 | 17.8 | 18.2 | 522.4 | 610.3 | 13.4% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-25 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5532"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges